NGC’s Gas Price Move: What It Could Mean for Prices, Exports, and Everyday Life in Trinidad & Tobago
- Kanson Seenarine
- Jan 21
- 8 min read
Updated: 6 days ago
A practical, data-backed explainer for manufacturers, retailers, and households—plus what to do next.
Prepared by Kanson Seenarine • 21 January 2026
Why this matters right now
Reports and industry commentary suggest the National Gas Company of Trinidad and Tobago (NGC) is moving to adjust its natural gas pricing to industrial users, with changes expected to take effect by the end of January. Even before any new price is officially published, the direction of travel is clear: gas supply constraints, upstream contract resets, and a tougher global energy environment are pushing the gas value chain toward higher costs and more intense negotiations.
In practical terms, when the price of gas rises for manufacturers, it can ripple through three places that touch almost everyone: (1) the cost of locally-made goods, (2) export competitiveness, and (3) consumer confidence and spending behaviour.
Trinidad and Tobago is unusually sensitive to this because the economy is deeply gas-based—energy and petrochemicals dominate exports and public revenues, and natural gas underpins industrial production and electricity generation. [1,2]
Quick context: gas pricing is not only a “Point Lisas issue.” It shapes the costs of packaging, transport services, cold storage, food processing, chemicals, construction materials, and the wider services ecosystem that supports manufacturing.
Trinidad & Tobago’s gas dependency, in one page
A gas price move in Trinidad and Tobago is never “just” a utility story. It is a macroeconomic story. Here are the dependency links that matter most:
Energy sector scale: IMF analysis reports the energy sector (including petrochemicals) at about 36% of GDP, ~86% of exports, and ~56% of central government revenue (for 2022). [1]
Export concentration: PwC’s 2024 Energy Sector Update notes petroleum, petroleum products and petrochemicals account for nearly 80% of export revenues. [2]
Public finance exposure: EITI’s Trinidad and Tobago country profile reports the oil and gas sector accounted for 51% of government revenue in 2023. [3]
Shock transmission: Central Bank working papers document that energy price shocks materially affect output and macroeconomic outcomes in a small open petroleum economy like Trinidad and Tobago. [4]
That dependency is why domestic gas pricing discussions quickly become questions about jobs, foreign exchange inflows, fiscal space, and household affordability—even if your own electricity bill does not move immediately.
How a gas price increase turns into higher shelf prices
A manufacturer does not need gas to be 100% of its cost base for a gas increase to matter. A few common channels explain why:
1) Direct feedstock and fuel costs
For gas-intensive industries (petrochemicals, fertilisers, methanol, some heavy processing), gas is both a feedstock and an energy input. When the unit price rises, the impact can be large, fast, and difficult to offset—especially for facilities operating on thin margins or selling into globally-priced commodity markets.
Recent events underline how tight the operating margin can become when gas supply is constrained or contracts become uneconomic. For example, Trinidad Guardian and Newsday reporting in early January 2026 describes NGC’s cut-off of supply to Nutrien’s Point Lisas facility amid contract and operational disputes—an illustration of how high-stakes these negotiations can become. [5,6]
2) Indirect costs in the supply chain
Even for “non-gas” manufacturers (food, beverages, household products, light manufacturing), gas can raise costs indirectly via:
Electricity costs (depending on tariff settings and generation costs).
Packaging inputs (plastics, resins, chemicals, adhesives).
Cold chain and warehousing (refrigeration, backup power, logistics).
Transport and distribution (fuel policy, freight, maintenance).
Local services costs (maintenance contractors, security, cleaning, catering).
This is why consumers often experience a “diffuse” effect: not one sudden price jump everywhere, but a gradual lift across many categories—especially the categories where margins are already under pressure.
3) Expectations: the ‘news effect’ on pricing and behaviour
Sometimes the biggest short-run effect is not the cost itself, but expectations. When businesses and households expect higher prices ahead, behaviour changes: firms re-price earlier to protect margins, retailers reduce promotions, and consumers start ‘pre-buying’ or trading down.
A Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago working paper (2025) finds that higher inflation expectations are associated with higher inflation and examines a news-based inflation expectations index for Trinidad and Tobago—supporting the idea that headlines can influence expectations and, in turn, outcomes. [7]
What it could mean for exports and foreign exchange
For exporters, a gas price increase has two opposing effects operating at the same time:
A) Lower competitiveness for gas-intensive exporters
Commodity exporters (ammonia, methanol, some chemical products) tend to sell into world-priced markets where Trinidad and Tobago cannot easily pass higher costs to customers. If gas prices rise materially, the exporter’s margin compresses. If margins turn negative, output cuts, maintenance shutdowns, or closures become more likely. Think Nutrien.
B) Stronger fiscal inflows if upstream prices and LNG netbacks are higher
From a national perspective, higher realised gas prices can raise upstream fiscal receipts (depending on contract structures, taxes, royalties, and netback pricing). Energy Chamber commentary highlights how realised gas prices shape government revenue outcomes, particularly during periods of high global LNG pricing. [8]
In short: higher prices can help the Treasury and upstream receipts, while simultaneously pressuring downstream manufacturing competitiveness. That tension is exactly why pricing negotiations are politically and economically sensitive.
A simple pricing stress test example (for local manufacturers)
A useful way to think about this is to separate costs into: (1) energy-linked costs and (2) everything else.
Example scenario (illustrative): A food manufacturer has a landed cost structure where utilities + packaging + transport (all energy-linked to some degree) make up 30% of total cost, and the rest is labour, ingredients, overhead, and financing. If energy-linked costs rise by 15%, total unit cost rises by about 4.5% (0.30 × 0.15).
That 4.5% increase then has to be absorbed somewhere: reduced margin, higher price, smaller pack sizes, or a change in product mix. If margins are already thin, the pricing decision becomes urgent.
Now zoom out: if many manufacturers face similar arithmetic at the same time, you get broad-based “cost-push” inflation—especially noticeable in everyday baskets like food, household goods, and personal care.
What consumers will likely feel (and how to stay calm about it)
It’s normal to feel uneasy when you hear “gas prices goin' up.” But panic is rarely useful. What helps is knowing the likely sequence:
Immediate term (0–3 months)
Businesses re-run budgets and pricing models; some will raise prices quickly, others will delay and absorb part of the shock.
Promotions may thin out; retailers become more cautious with deep discounts.
Consumers may see selective price increases first (items with short shelf-life, cold chain, packaging-heavy products).
Short term (3–12 months)
More of the ‘indirect’ effects show up (services, distribution, local contractor costs).
Consumers trade down (store brands, smaller packs, fewer discretionary purchases).
Inflation expectations become more important; headlines can amplify behaviour and speed up pass-through.
Medium term (1–3 years)
Firms that invest in efficiency (energy audits, process optimisation, logistics redesign) gain advantage.
Exporters face a stronger need to differentiate (quality, compliance, branding) because cost leadership becomes harder.
Policy debates intensify about industrial competitiveness vs. fiscal realism.
Long term (3+ years)
The long-run answer is resilience: more efficiency, more diversification, and a deliberate transition strategy. Research on Latin America and the Caribbean suggests that higher renewable electricity adoption can reduce the pass-through of fossil-fuel price shocks to inflation—one reason energy transition discussions are increasingly economic (not only environmental). [9]
International commentary has also framed Trinidad and Tobago as being at an inflection point: the need to manage fiscal exposure and diversify beyond hydrocarbons while still monetising existing resources responsibly. [10]
What businesses can do now (practical moves)
If you run a manufacturing or distribution business, the best response is structured, not reactive. Here are high-impact moves:
Run a ‘gas shock’ stress test: model movements in energy-linked inputs and map impacts by SKU and channel.
Re-price with discipline: decide what must pass through, what can be absorbed, and where pack-size or assortment changes make more sense.
Protect exports: quantify your cost-per-unit in USD, then test competitiveness under weaker/stronger TT dollar and higher freight costs.
Invest in efficiency: energy audits, maintenance, process controls, and logistics optimisation often deliver quick paybacks.
Strengthen supplier negotiations: align with suppliers on volume, timing, and shared efficiencies to reduce ‘double pass-through.’
What households can do (without panic)
Households can’t negotiate gas contracts, but you can reduce exposure and avoid ‘news-driven’ overspending.
Pause and prioritise: focus spending on essentials; delay big discretionary purchases if prices feel unstable.
Look for cost-per-unit: smaller packs often cost more per unit—compare carefully.
Reduce waste: food waste is often the hidden ‘tax’ during inflation periods.
Track 5–10 staple items weekly: a simple basket helps you see real changes instead of reacting to headlines.
From a policy perspective, international research consistently argues that if governments choose to cushion households during energy price surges, targeted support to the vulnerable is generally more efficient than broad price suppression—because price signals still encourage conservation while fiscal costs remain manageable. [11]
What to watch next
Over the coming weeks, keep an eye on indicators that tell you whether this is a short shock or a longer reset:
Watch item | Why it matters | |
NGC public statements / pricing notices | Confirms timing, scope, and whether increases are across-the-board or targeted by segment. | |
Industrial production decisions at Point Lisas (Energy Chamber Conference) | Early signal of margin stress, output cuts, or renegotiation outcomes. | |
Inflation and expectations indicators | Expectations can accelerate or slow price pass-through. | |
Upstream contract news and supply additions | More gas supply can ease pricing pressure and improve stability. | |
Export performance and FX liquidity | Export receipts affect foreign exchange availability and business planning. |
On the supply side, NGC has recently signalled efforts to strengthen upstream and infrastructure arrangements (for example, agreements and asset moves reported in January 2026). [12]
How ASTL can help
If you’re a manufacturer, distributor, or exporter, this is the moment to replace guesswork with analysis. ASTL supports businesses with pricing stress tests, demand and consumer insight work, and export competitiveness planning.
If you want this packaged into a tailored action plan for your business (pricing, product mix, channel strategy, and export roadmap), reach out to Ascendancy Solutions and Trading Limited via admin@ascendancytt.com.
References
[1] International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2024). Trinidad and Tobago: Selected Issues. IMF Country Report No. 24/151.
[2] PwC Trinidad and Tobago. (2024). Trinidad and Tobago Energy Sector Update 2024 (October 2024).
[3] Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI). (n.d.). Trinidad and Tobago country profile (includes 2023 government revenue share).
[4] Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago (CBTT). (2018). The Economic Impact of Energy Price Shocks on a Small Open Petroleum Economy (Working Paper WP 03/2018).
[5] Trinidad and Tobago Guardian. (2026-01-01). NGC pulls plug on Nutrien: State gas company ends supply contract to fertiliser giant; over 500 workers face termination.
[6] Trinidad and Tobago Newsday. (2026-01-03). NGC on shutdown: ‘Nutrien held TT to ransom’.
[7] Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago (CBTT). (2025). Inflation Expectations and Inflation Modelling: The Case of Trinidad and Tobago (Working Paper, October 2025).
[8] Energy Chamber of Trinidad and Tobago (EnergyNow). (2025). Trinidad & Tobago average gas prices (discussion of realised gas prices and fiscal importance).
[9] Energy Policy (Elsevier). (2025). The role of renewables in smoothing the impact of oil and gas price shocks on inflation in Latin America and the Caribbean.
[10] The Guardian. (2025-09-19). ‘A defining moment’: Trinidad and Tobago at a crossroads as oil runs out.
[11] International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2022). Targeted, Implementable, and Practical Energy Relief Measures for Households in Europe (IMF Working Paper WP/22/262).
[12] National Gas Company of Trinidad and Tobago (NGC). (2026-01-16). NGC EOG Upstream Contract (media release).
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